CCMC CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2026-02-05T15:48:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2026-02-05T15:48ZDONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/44494/-1
CME Note: CME observed to the S/SW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3, greatly obscured by the pylon in GOES CCOR-1, and to the SE of STEREO A COR2 for 3 frames before a data gap begins at 2026-02-05T16:08Z. The source is likely associated with an M1.8 flare from AR 14362 (S18W17) which peaked at 2026-02-05T15:13Z, observed in SDO AIA 131. Following this flare, a large but faint southerly deflected EUV wave is observed causing a wide swath of dimming and field line wiggling to the south of this region observed in SDO AIA 171/193 and GOES SUVI 284, centered around S45W10 and spanning approximately E25-W30 and S30-S65. Multiple concentric fronts emerge in LASCO C2 following the intial 2026-02-05T15:48Z front, but these are considered part of the same complex bulk.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-02-08T11:31Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: Median of all Methods
Prediction Method Note:
This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME.Lead Time: 54.87 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2026-02-06T04:39Z
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